What Is Behind the So-Called Special Military Operation Of Putin?

Is It a Drama Staged to Initiate Something? What Does Putin Actually Want?

10 min readApr 8, 2022

It is been more than a month since Russia began its so-called special military operation in Ukraine. Although it is expected that the invasion will last for not more than a week as Russia is a supergiant and much more powerful compared to Ukraine. But, the ongoing conflict indicates that Russia is not demonstrating its full capability in this war and dragging the war for a long time. Resistance also matters as Russia wants the support of the Ukrainian people to establish Russian-backed leadership. But still, the things going on are very suspicious.

Let’s first look into the overall brief about Russia and Ukraine with a simple comparison.

The Soviet Union was made up of 15 Soviet republics, including Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine declared independence on August 24, 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The map below depicts the dates on which each of these countries gained independence.

Following independence, Ukraine made strenuous efforts to shed its Russian imperial past and build closer links with the West.

Ukraine has been led by seven presidents in the last 30 years. With two revolutions, the first in 2005 and the second in 2014, the country has had a bumpy road to democracy. Protesters in both cases denounced Russia’s dominance and demanded a way to join the European Union and NATO.

In comparison, Russia has had three presidents, the longest of whom is Vladimir Putin, who has been in power for 17 years. Putin, a former operative of the Soviet Union’s KGB secret services, approved a decree in 2021 that effectively extends his reign until 2036.

Putin has stated numerous times that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and that they are both parts of the historical “Russian civilization,” which also includes Belarus. Ukrainians are skeptical of his statements.

NATO

NATO is the most powerful military alliance in the world. Its major duty is to safeguard its member states through political and military methods. It is made up of 30 countries. Russia opposes NATO bases near its borders and has demanded formal assurances that the alliance will not expand eastward. One of the Kremlin’s main demands is that Ukraine is denied membership in NATO, which it regards as a red line. This demand has been refused by the United States.

On the other hand, Russia boasts one of the world’s most powerful military and is one of the top five spenders on defense. Fearing a Russian ground invasion, NATO allies have ramped up assistance for Kyiv by delivering military weapons to Ukraine since hostilities began.

Economy

Considering petroleum, oil and gas are abundant in both Russia and Ukraine. With 48,938 billion cubic meters of confirmed gas reserves, Russia ranks first in the world. Gazprom, a state-owned energy company, owns more than 70% of the country’s gas reserves.

About a third of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia. Sanctions imposed by the United States as a result of the conflict could interrupt that supply, increasing Europe’s energy crisis. Germany suspended the certification of Nord Stream 2, an $11.6 billion Russian gas pipeline project that was supposed to transport 151 million cubic meters of gas per day into Europe.

China purchased roughly a quarter (27%) of Russia’s total oil exports worth $34 billion. However, given China’s enormous energy requirements, this accounted for only 16% of the country’s oil imports. In 2019, Russian crude oil was imported by at least 48 nations. Belarus, Cuba, Curacao, Kazakhstan, and Latvia are among the countries that rely on Russian oil the most, each purchasing more than 99 percent of their crude oil from Russia.

After the United States, Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter, accounting for around 20% of worldwide weapons shipments. Moscow supplied $28 billion worth of weapons to 45 countries between 2016 and 2020. Nearly 90% of Russia’s weaponry is sent to ten countries. India, Russia’s largest customer, has purchased 23 percent of Russia’s armaments for $6.5 billion over the last five years. Russia accounts for 49.3 percent of India’s overall arms imports.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China was the second-largest importer of Russian weapons, spending $5.1 billion during the same time, followed by Algeria ($4.2 billion), Egypt ($3.3 billion), and Vietnam ($1.7 billion).

What does Russia want from this so-called special military operation in Ukraine?

Well, let’s see the series of events that happened beyond the conflict to extract what would be the true intentions of this conflict.

Sanctions

Feb. 21, 2022 — President Putin recognizes the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Feb. 22, 2022 — Germany halts certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Feb. 23, 2022 — EU, Australia impose additional sanctions in response to Russian decrees.
Feb. 24, 2022 — Russia begins its so-called special military operation in Ukraine to demilitarize the nation citing a list of reasons for the act.
Feb. 24, 2022 — The US restricts tech exports. Modi speaks with Putin and fails to condemn Russia’s actions. The UK bans Russian flights from its airspace.
Feb. 25, 2022 — The governments of Japan, the US, Taiwan, and the EU impose more sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion. Russia bans British flights from its airspace.
Feb. 26, 2022 — Russia VETOES UN Security Council resolution. Countries such as Japan, Australia, the US, the EU, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, and Italy jointly commit to more sanctions.
Feb. 27, 2022 — BP, Russia’s largest foreign investor, cuts ties, beginning an exodus of Western companies. 30 countries in the EU ban Russian flights in their airspace.
Feb. 28, 2022 — The US, and EU target the Central Bank of Russia. Russia retaliates. Russia bans flights from 27 EU countries and another nine countries: Albania, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar, Canada, Jersey, Iceland, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
Mar. 1, 2022 — Japan announces sanctions. Mexico and Brazil deny imposing sanctions. The US bans Russian flights in its airspace.
Mar. 2, 2022 — The EU excludes seven Russian banks (Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya, Sovcombank, Vnesheconombank (VEB), and VTB Bank) from SWIFT. UN condemns the Russian invasion. Sberbank exits Europe. Guo Shuqing, the head of China’s banking and insurance regulator, indicates that China “will not participate in such sanctions, and we will continue to maintain normal economic, trade and financial exchanges with relevant parties.”
Ma. 3, 2022 — The US sanctions more individuals. Canada revokes MFN tariff status for Russia and Belarus.
Mar. 5, 2022 — Singapore sanctions Russia
Mar. 8, 2022 — The US bans Russian oil. Australia punishes propagandists. Russia bans certain exports. Wall Street Journal reported on March 8 reports the White House has tried unsuccessfully to set up phone calls between U.S. President Joe Biden and Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader. Note that Saudi and UAE have already rejected Biden’s plea to increase the oil export to the US.

A restriction on Russian oil imports would have a significant impact on the United States and its allies, especially European countries. Russia supplied 41% of natural gas imports to European Union countries in 2019.

Mar. 9, 2022 — The UK targets Russian aviation and oil. The United Kingdom announces that it will phase out Russian oil imports for the rest of 2022. New EU financial sanctions on Belarus and Russia.
Mar. 10, 2022 — The EU extends sanctions. The UK targets oligarchs. Canada and Australia ban certain Russian energy imports.
Mar. 11, 2022 — Russia bans exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley, and corn to its Eurasian Economic Union partners until August 31, 2022.
Mar. 15, 2022 — Saudi Arabia considers accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales.
Mar. 17, 2022 — The UK stops sharing tax info with Russia. Australia announces sanctions.
Mar. 18, 2022 — Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad visits the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and talks with a number of powerful and controversial rulers who have shown a desire to re-establish ties with Syria. This is Assad’s first trip to an Arab country since the civil conflict in Syria began 11 years ago.
Mar.19, 2022 — Australia bans alumina exports to Russia.
Mar. 23, 2022 — Canada sanctions Russian individuals. US, UK, Canada export credit agencies withdraw support.
Mar. 27, 2022 — The UK suspends research with Russian universities.
Mar. 29, 2022 — Japan revises luxury goods export ban.
Mar. 31, 2022 — Australia applies tariffs. The UK sanctions Russian media for disinformation. The US acts to prevent evasion. Putin signs a decree forcing gas payments to be made in rubles if buyers are from “unfriendly” countries, including western Europe.
Apr. 1, 2022 — The US Commerce expands export controls.
Apr. 5, 2022 — The US sanctions the darknet market, virtual currency exchange. Canada prohibits insurance exports for aviation.
Apr. 6, 2022 — The UK also bans all new outward investment to Russia, bans imports of Russian iron and steel products, commits to ending imports of Russian coal and oil by the end of 2022 and gas “as soon as possible thereafter,” and bans exports to Russia of quantum and advanced material technologies.
Apr. 7, 2022 — Biden administration issues an Executive Order banning new outbound US foreign investment into Russia as well as services exports. US Treasury also imposes financial sanctions on Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, and family members of Putin, Lavrov, as well as Russian Security Council members.

Did these affect Russia?

The series of events suggest that Russia wanted to challenge the existing systems which are based on US Dollars. Especially, the role of US Dollars in the energy sector of the world.

The current trend of the Ruble against the US Dollar is as follows.

Also,

The Ruble has bounced back as usual thus making the whole economic sanctions imposed as nothing for the moment.

De-dollarization and The Anti-Dollar Axis

The events show that Russia may be leading the same war that Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti and Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi led against the Petrodollar. The serious difference that the West has now is, that both Iraq and Libya are non-nuclear but Russia!

De-dollarization became a priority for Russia in 2014 as a result of Western sanctions imposed in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea, which hindered the capacity of state enterprises and banks to raise capital in Western markets. Following the start of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the employment of punitive financial measures by the US, China began to realize the worth of this campaign.

Despite this, the alliance is unequal, with Russia leading the charge in developing alternatives to the dollar. In 2020, only 23% of Russian exports to China were denominated in dollars, while 60% of Chinese exports to Russia were still denominated in dollars. Furthermore, Russia declared plans in 2019 to develop a new international payments system with China as a replacement for the US-dominated SWIFT.

Putin’s Russia appears to have more de-dollarization partners in Asia, such as India. Despite the fact that India has been a skeptic of such a de-dollarization alliance, it has devised means to deal with Russia while avoiding sanctions. Following Western sanctions on Russia, India has been looking into a rupee-ruble trade agreement.

Simply, the bankruptcy of Putin’s government could cause a major setback to The Anti-Dollar Axis’s attempt to build an alternative global financial system.

Removing US Dollar from Petroleum directly means announcing a war against the US. And that indicates that the nation goes to war with the world’s strongest military alliance, NATO. But when a country is expelled from a system that indicts the mandatory use of the US Dollar in the payments, the nation can adopt a currency to proceed with. Here, the situation of expelling Russia from SWIFT may be the first goal set by Putin when he started his so-called special military action in Ukraine.

Putin, along with his close friends, may be trying to reduce the role of the US Dollar in the global market, and Ukraine is just a playground for the execution of this long-term goal.

Hope this article helps. Share your thoughts too.